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D1 - Week 6 and some Sherlock Stats
Download Week_6_D1_Stats.pdf
Dec 03, 2018
The D1 Thanksgiving break was well deserved as many teams are now in the midst of competing to gain a top 6 spot, which after this week is only 5 short weeks away, or working to stay out of the bottom 3 for a chance to continue to play some D1 ball next season.

Each week, we are going to feature the upset of the week. For those that might have missed the larger ones in the first couple of weeks, yours truly was featured in two separate weeks both on the losing side with different partners. You will have to look up those matches yourselves if you have that much interest in old news.

This week’s match featured the underdogs from Philadelphia Cricket Club playing on court 2. Ryan Gelrod and John Talbot carried their combined 30.3 rating into the match and defeated Huntingdon Valley’s Trip Davis and Chris VanBuren who started off the match with a 23.6 rating. Ryan and John won 6-0, 6-4, 4-6 and each of their ratings improved by 1.4.

For those keeping score of the ratings system (now named Sherlock), it accurately predicted 20 of the 24 matches for a 83.3% accuracy.

After almost 6 weeks of completed play, we have 2 teams that remain undefeated.

Last year's two finalists are not among the undefeated, but both Waynesborough and Philly Cricket are occupying the 3rd and 4th spots as of today with just two courts left to play from the week 1 rain out.

Wallingford currently sits on top and undefeated taking down; Stoga, H-Valley, Martins Dam, P-Cricket, Wilmington and Radley Run. They have won 18 courts and lost 5. As usual, Jeff Shrager is undefeated as is their newest addition Jeremy Loomis who is also boasting the 9th best rating in MAPTA. Jeff has the 6th best rating in MAPTA. Wallingford has 4 players with a rating of 10 or better and two more that are between a 10 and an 11. They are undefeated on court 2 and have only 1 loss on court 3. This team is already dominating the league and they appear to be still tweaking their line up to establish the line up that will take home the crown at the end of the season. No one doubts that they can sweep the league this year given both the strength and the depth of the players.

The defending Champions Waynesborough moved into second place after completing their week 1 rain out match with a one point lead over Picket Post (the only team that they have lost to this year). They have defeated Radley, Conestoga, Philly Country and Merion. They have won 16 courts and lost 7 to date. Captain Beers, who is still out since January, has been mixing up his line-up as well trying to determine the best match ups to finish up the season with. They lost Scotty Safford to another soccer related injury for a few weeks but this week’s test against Merion indicates that he is back on his game. This team has the number 1 ranked player in MAPTA, Vlatko with a -3.1 rating. They also have 4 more players with a rating of 10 or better. This team has traditionally been dominant based on their depth, but this year they have only dropped 1 match on both courts 1 & 2. Placing Doug Morrow in the line-up full time has given fits to the opposition as the quick footed and handed lefty playing on courts 2 & 3 as most of their opponents rarely have had to square off against such a quality player. Their rain out with Wallingford will be something to put on your calendars as many anticipate that these two squads will pair off 3 times this season culminating with one of them being crowned the 2019 champion.

Picket Post surprisingly is also undefeated after 6 weeks of play. They have defeated P-Country, P-Cricket, Wilmington, Waynesborough, Radley and Concord. They have been maximizing their line up as their overall record is 14 courts won to 10 courts lost. Four of their six wins have been decided by a tie-breaker. Bill Sedgwick currently is undefeated on a variety of courts and the addition of Rodney who is 4 & 1 certainly appears to be the difference this early part of the season in addition to winning 5 out of the 6 times on court 4. Next week, they take on Wallingford to see if they can hold onto their undefeated start to the season.

Last year's runner up Philly Cricket has won 3 matches and lost 3 this year. They definitely had one of the tougher schedules to start the year as they lost to Picket Post, Wallingford and Martins Dam, while defeating H-Valley, Merion, and P-Country. Captain Bruce has been out the entire year, also with a soccer related injury. Falatek and McDonald have proved to be the hottest combo in the league this year as they have won all 6 of their matches on court 1. They have also found their rhythm on court 4 as they have won their last four matches mixing up 5 different players.

Merion, although tied for fourth place with P-Cricket, lost in the head to head match with them so they are currently in 5th place and look destined for a run at the top six for the first time in many years. They started off the season with three wins but dropped their last three to Waynesborough, Philly Cricket and Philly Country. They got a point each off of P-Cricket and P- Country. They have had 12 players play the first six weeks as they show their depth this season is able to handle almost every squad in the league. They had won five consecutive matches on court 3 until they lost a tight three setter to Waynesborough, and the other courts are all doing better than .500 for the first six weeks. Based on their remaining schedule, making it into the top 6 is going to be tight.

Martins Dam currently sits in sixth place and just a single point behind Merion and P-Cricket. They are coming off back to back losses to Conestoga and P-Country and this week will face off against Merion. The rising star of the program is Steve Macgregor who is 5-1 this season. Captain Dan has a lot of players available to slot into the 4 courts and he too is trying to come up with some magical combinations that can get them back into the Top 4 and the playoffs. They are going to need some help or pull off an upset or two against the Top 6 teams.

Everyone thought this year would be a rebuilding year for Conestoga after suffering what appeared to be two huge losses in the post season to other clubs. What no one saw coming was the unheralded rise of Leandro Gubler. In his first season of paddle he has taken down some big names in his first 6 weeks of playing the sport. After studying the archives for many weeks, no one can find another player that played his very first competitive match in D1 and then rose to court 2 in D1 securing multiple victories already. According to Captain Trevor, “His upside is tremendous. I count my lucky stars every day that Matt and Rodney found other places to play, otherwise I may not have recognized this diamond in the rough. Eric and I are looking forward to moving down to possibly court 2 by the end of the season when Antonio and Leo take us down which is inevitable.”

Philly Country sits just one point behind Conestoga and developed a pattern of winning every other match this season. If they can maintain that pace, they should stay out of 10th place where they were last year and had to defend their position in D1. With wins against the likes of Merion and Martins Dam under their belts, this squad is hoping for more than a 9th place finish but a possible spot in the Top 6. With Wallingford being the only match that they have left before the split against a Top 6 team, it’s definitely achievable and would be the first time in 6 years. Their new assistant pro Nolan and Brian Crochiere have been world beaters on court 3 early this season. Wins on court 3 is something that this club has been lacking in previous years but could be the difference in taking a Top 6 spot.

Concord is exactly where they wanted to be at this point in the season which is in 9th place and out of harms way. Their recent point off of Picket Post would indicate that these guys can ball with anyone this season and may be a player or two away or a year or two away from making it into a top 6 spot. Unfortunately, they are once again losing their best player to travel for the second time this year. This loss is going to make it difficult to hold onto a spot out of the bottom 3 but they still have the best Swede in the league even after losing the best Swede. With certain strategic flights possibly scheduled from now till March, this team still has a fighting chance to run with the big dogs next season.

Radley Run would say that they are having a disappointing season to date as their only points came off a win against Concord. They have only won 6 courts in 6 weeks. Their target wins have to be against H-Valley, Wilmington, and Concord. They still haven’t played Wilmington and H-Valley, so there is still a chance they can move into 9th place before the split.

Wilmington and H-Valley each have one point and have one court left from their week 1 rain out in which H-Valley already leads 2 courts to 1. These teams will have an uphill climb to stay out of the bottom 3 but there is still 10 weeks left of the season and Vegas is not always right.

Sherlock Gets it Right
Due to a certain author finding himself with some additional free time, we have attached an in-depth analysis using the ratings from last week. For those that love numbers, it is interesting to see how teams lined up with the ratings, the overall ratings, the ratings per court and the outcomes.

For the week Sherlock got 83.3% of all courts correct for week 6 which in itself shows that the ratings are doing a fairly good job of determining the better team on the court despite the fact that many teams have some interesting line ups.
The player variance per court indicates the difference between the players' ratings playing on the same court. The variance between courts is the drop off in ratings between court 1 and 2, 2 and 3 and 3 and 4. Some teams clearly have a line up that creates virtually 4 equal courts (Martins Dam & HV) and others have some large discrepancies between the players on the courts (PCC and Merion).

You have a stat that you would like to track or report (D1 or League Wide)? If so, forward it to studnick@gmail.com and we can look into reporting it either weekly or monthly. Click on the link to see the analyses.
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